No match-specific evidence is available this far out, so the prediction rests on the established quality gap. France, as 2018 winners and 2022 finalists, possess superior squad depth with Mbappé's game-breaking speed and Griezmann's creativity. Senegal, though African champions, lack France's proven high-level consistency and depth. The hard cap on win probability (0.70) forces a conservative calibration from the prior 0.75; the 0.68 reflects France's clear edge but respects Senegal's ability to compete. A 2-0 scoreline aligns with France's typical control and defensive organization, while a draw (0.22) and Senegal win (0.10) remain plausible but less likely without fresh evidence.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF:GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10:2 | 9 |
| 2 | Norway | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8:7 | 6 |
| 3 | Senegal | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8:6 | 3 |
| 4 | Iraq | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1:12 | 0 |